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French Elections 2024 - Fragmented Franchise

Another Episode of “Global Canvas” from JOI

France, once a symbol of European stability, has seen its political landscape shift dramatically since Emmanuel Macron’s re-election in 2022. What was once a unified centre is now deeply divided, leading to unexpected twists in the 2024 snap elections. This political rollercoaster raises a critical question: Is France’s turmoil a precursor to wider European change? In this week of Global Canvas, we unravel the surprising outcomes, the struggles of coalition-building, and what this could mean for Europe’s political future. Could this be a glimpse into a continent in churn or is it just an isolated moment?

Context and Background

Emmanuel Macron made history in 2022, becoming the first French president in 20 years to win a second term. But his victory, with 58.5% of the runoff vote against Marine Le Pen's 41.5%, came at a price. It wasn’t just a win; it was a reflection of the fractured state of France, a nation deeply divided. Marine Le Pen’s rise is central to this shift. By softening her rhetoric on issues of the European Union and NATO, Le Pen managed to move her far-right National Rally (NR) into the political mainstream. Her strategy worked—her share of the vote surged from 34% in 2017 to 41% in 2022, signalling the powerful rebranding of her party.

However, Macron’s second term has been anything but smooth. Governing with a minority cabinet, he has relied heavily on Article 49.3 of the French Constitution, a contentious provision that allows him to bypass parliament and enact laws by decree. This has sparked growing public frustration, with many seeing it as an undemocratic tactic. Macron’s struggles were further reflected in the 2024 European Parliament elections, where his party suffered a significant blow, revealing cracks in his political influence. In the wake of this result, Macron called for a snap election, hoping to reset the balance of power. But, instead of clearing the way for reform, the results only deepened the deadlock.

The French parliament consists of 577 seats, with 289 needed for a majority. The first round of elections acts as a qualifying phase where candidates must receive at least 12.5% of the local vote to advance. If a candidate secures more than half of the votes in the first round, they win automatically; otherwise, those who meet the initial criteria move on to a runoff. In the election’s final stages, ‘horse-trading’ is common, where parties form strategic alliances and drop candidates in certain constituencies to consolidate support and minimise vote splitting.

Key Players and Stakeholders

The 2024 snap elections were dominated by three contenders: the RN (National Rally) led by Le Pen and its right-wing allies led by Eric Ciotti, the New Popular Front (NPF), the left-wing coalition which includes the Socialists led by Olivier Faure, the Greens led by Marine Tondelier, the Communists and the far-left party France Unbowed led by Jean-Luc Mélenchon, and Macron's centrist Ensemble alliance.

RN, with its hardline stance on immigration and ‘national priority’, surged to 33% of the vote in the first round. Furthermore, of the 76 seats secured directly in the first round—by surpassing the majority, an unprecedented 40 went to the NR. In response, the NPF and Ensemble Alliance adopted a "Republican Front" strategy, strategically avoiding direct competition in three-way races to consolidate votes against the far-right. The NPF, with promises of progressive reforms like restoring the wealth tax and introducing a windfall tax on corporations, emerged as the largest bloc with 188 seats. Meanwhile, Macron’s Ensemble alliance saw a decline, falling to just 161 seats. NR, capitalising on public concerns over rising immigration and asylum claims, gained traction with its "national priority" policies, securing 142 seats. The result: a fractured parliament with no party or bloc achieving the 289-seat majority needed to govern, leaving France in political gridlock.

Major Concerns and Consequences

The 2024 French elections highlight the deep divisions within the electorate, the rise of populist movements, and the challenges of coalition-building in an increasingly polarised political landscape.

Macron’s lack of a parliamentary majority has hindered his ability to pass reforms, leading to the possibility of legislative paralysis. The coalition-building attempts have been mostly tactical rather than strategic, with no long-term alliances emerging. This political fragmentation, with no precedent of coalition governments in France, means the country is now navigating uncertain and uncharted political waters.

On the international stage, the 2024 French elections reveal the fragility of European unity amid the rise of populism. Macron’s weakened political position could undermine his ability to lead the EU on critical issues like defence, climate change, and economic integration. France’s instability also threatens its influence in global forums, such as NATO and the United Nations. As a permanent member of the UN Security Council, France’s capacity to mediate in conflicts like the Israel-Palestine situation or the Russia-Ukraine war may be compromised. Additionally, the increasing sway of nationalist and far-left forces could undermine France’s role in NATO, particularly in leading European security initiatives.

The surge of far-right and far-left movements in France mirrors a broader European trend seen in Italy, Sweden, and Hungary. This shift raises key questions for International Relations scholars about the resilience of liberal democracies, especially in the face of rising economic and social pressures.

Political Perspectives and Understanding

From a liberal perspective, the 2024 French elections paint a picture of a democracy teetering on the edge, marked by pluralism but fractured by deep political divides. The rise of populist movements like the NR challenges core liberal values, particularly on immigration and individual rights. Macron’s reliance on Article 49.3 to bypass parliament weakens democratic accountability, and growing instability threatens France’s influence in the EU.

From a Critical Theory standpoint, the elections underscore deeper socio-economic inequalities and power imbalances. The NR's rise can be interpreted as a response to the alienation felt by working-class and rural communities, who perceive themselves as neglected by the political elite. This populist surge reflects broader frustrations with a system seen as perpetuating inequality and marginalising large sections of society.

Takeaways

France’s political landscape from 2022 to 2024 paints a vivid picture of a democracy grappling with rising polarisation, economic discontent, and eroding trust in its institutions. The lessons learnt are universal: how do democracies strike a balance between local challenges and global responsibilities? Can coalitions survive in systems torn by fragmentation? Can a nation fend off populist tides while holding on to its core democratic values?

These questions, born from France’s current political deadlock, will undoubtedly reverberate across Europe and the world. What remains uncertain is whether the ripple effects of France’s instability will extend beyond its borders, influencing broader geopolitical shifts and the resilience of democratic structures in other nations. As the political tides in France shift, the world watches closely, waiting to see if this moment marks a turning point for European and global politics.

Compiled by Commodore (Dr) Johnson Odakkal (with support from Ms Vivaksha Vats)

Stay Tuned for More!

Join us in the Global Canvas series as we unravel the complex ties between politics and global shifts. This week, we analyzed France’s 2024 snap elections—a moment of political fragmentation with potential ripple effects across Europe. Have a topic you'd like us to cover? Share your suggestions, and it could be our next feature! Dive deeper at www.johnsonodakkal.com or connect with us at ceo@johnsonodakkal.com

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