Greenland Elections 2025: The Iceberg Beneath the Ballot

5 days ago7 min read

Another Episode of “Global Canvas” by JOI

Greenland’s March 11, 2025, election delivered a shocking upset as the center-right, pro-independence Demokraatit surged to victory, unseating the left-wing Inuit Ataqatigiit (IA). Pledging gradual independence and economic self-sufficiency, the new government is set to reshape Greenland’s future—just as global powers, including the U.S. and China, compete for influence in the Arctic. With Donald Trump once again expressing interest in Greenland, the island has become a geopolitical hotspot. This week on Global Canvas, we look into the growing geopolitical importance of Greenland.

Context and Background

Greenland, the world’s largest island, spans over 2 million square kilometres yet is home to just over 56,000 people. While its population is small, its strategic Arctic location makes it a geopolitical hotspot.

On March 11, 2025, Greenlanders went to the polls, and by March 12, the results revealed a major political shift. The center-right, pro-business Demokraatit (The Democrats), led by Jens-Frederik Nielsen, pulled off a stunning victory, securing 29.9% of the vote. The party campaigned on economic development, improving housing and education, and delaying independence until Greenland is self-sufficient. This marked a dramatic turnaround from the 9.1% of the vote it received in the previous election, when it finished in fourth place.

Despite its win, Demokraatit did not secure an outright majority in Greenland’s 31-seat parliament, Inatsisartut, prompting coalition talks. It is expected to form a government with Naleraq, a center-populist, aggressively pro-independence party that finished second with 24.5% of the vote. The left-wing Inuit Ataqatigiit (IA), which led the last government, suffered a major setback, dropping to 21.4%. Another traditional power player, the social democratic Siumut, collapsed to 14.7%, a stunning decline for a party that once dominated Greenlandic politics.

Greenland is a semi-autonomous territory of Denmark, governing most domestic affairs but lacking control over foreign policy, security, and defense, which remain under Danish jurisdiction. The issue of full independence has long been debated, with Greenlandic parties divided over how fast sovereignty should be pursued. Demokraatit supports eventual independence but argues that Greenland must first build a stronger economy, infrastructure, and education system before breaking from Denmark. Naleraq, on the other hand, wants a rapid move toward independence, pushing for an immediate referendum. IA and Siumut also support independence but advocate for a cautious, long-term approach, emphasizing social policies and sustainability.

The 2025 Greenland election was seen as a pivotal moment amid growing U.S. interest in the Arctic, driven by the island’s strategic location, vast mineral reserves, and Donald Trump’s past push to acquire it. While its geopolitical significance loomed large, the campaign itself focused primarily on domestic issues like healthcare, housing shortages, and education, reflecting the immediate concerns of Greenlandic voters over external power struggles.

Key Players and Stakeholders

Demokraatit, led by Jens-Frederik Nielsen, is a center-right, pro-business party that secured a surprise victory with 29.9% of the vote in Greenland’s 2025 elections. The party advocates for economic growth through foreign investment, diversification of the economy, and expansion of the mining sector, which is seen as crucial for reducing Greenland’s dependence on Danish subsidies. While Demokraatit supports eventual independence, it favors a gradual approach, emphasizing the need to strengthen Greenland’s economy first. The party has also been highly critical of Donald Trump’s rhetoric about acquiring Greenland, with Nielsen calling Trump “a threat to our political independence.”

Naleraq, led by Pele Broberg, is a center-right, nationalist party that finished second with 24.5% of the vote. Unlike Demokraatit, Naleraq advocates for a rapid move toward full sovereignty, pushing for an immediate referendum on independence. The party has historically been more receptive to U.S. interest in Greenland, seeing it as an opportunity to diversify economic partnerships beyond Denmark. Naleraq’s strong electoral performance has positioned it as a key force in the new government, with coalition negotiations likely to determine how aggressively independence will be pursued.

Inuit Ataqatigiit (IA), led by Múte Bourup Egede, is a left-wing socialist party that suffered a major setback in the election, dropping to 21.4% of the vote and falling to third place. IA supports Greenlandic independence but takes a cautious, long-term approach, prioritizing social welfare, environmental protection, and sustainable development over immediate sovereignty. While the party previously led the government, its declining support suggests a shift in voter priorities toward economic concerns and a stronger push for self-sufficiency before independence.

Siumut, historically Greenland’s dominant party, is a center-left, social democratic party led by Erik Jensen. Once the primary political force in Greenland, Siumut continued its decline, securing just 14.9% of the vote. The party supports eventual independence but has long emphasized economic development and maintaining strong ties with Denmark as a necessary step before sovereignty. Its electoral losses reflect growing dissatisfaction with the party’s leadership and policies, as Greenlanders increasingly seek new political directions for managing the island’s future.

Major Concerns and Consequences

The Arctic is emerging as a key battleground for global influence, with Greenland at its centre. Three major factors make Greenland an international focal point: Denmark’s balancing act, US strategic military importance, and new found natural resources.

Denmark remains cautious about Greenland’s push for independence, as losing Greenland would mean losing control over its Arctic interests. Denmark has invested heavily in Greenland’s infrastructure and security, especially as China and Russia increase their presence in the Arctic. A fully independent Greenland would force Denmark to rethink its geopolitical strategy and could weaken its position in NATO and the Arctic Council.

The Pituffik Space Base (formerly Thule Air Base) is the northernmost American military base and the only non-Danish military presence in Greenland. As a critical hub for missile defense and space surveillance, it allows the U.S. to detect missile launches, track trajectories, and activate defense systems in real time. Amid Trump’s renewed push to annex Greenland, which has become a major talking point, a high-level American delegation is visiting the island led by Usha Vance, wife of Vice President JD Vance, and includes White House National Security Adviser Mike Waltz and Energy Secretary Chris Wright. The visit has sparked backlash in Greenland, with Greenland's outgoing Prime Minister Mute Egede calling it a breach of democratic principles and a sign of disrespect for the island’s right to self-determination.

Greenland is believed to hold vast reserves of rare earth minerals, oil, and gas, drawing interest from the U.S., China, & the European Union. As Arctic ice melts, new military and shipping routes are opening, increasing the region’s importance. The U.S. wants access to Greenland’s rare earth elements to reduce its dependence on China, which currently dominates global production of these critical materials used in technology, renewable energy, and defense industries. However, mining in Greenland faces significant challenges, including harsh weather conditions, limited infrastructure, and opposition from local communities concerned about environmental damage.

Theoretically Speaking : Strategic Alignments and Power Shifts

From a realist perspective, the U.S., China, and Russia view Greenland as a strategic asset due to its military value, rare earth minerals, and emerging trade routes. The U.S. seeks to strengthen its military presence through Pituffik Space Base, while Denmark aims to maintain control over Greenland’s security. Meanwhile, China’s interest in Greenland’s mining sector and Russia’s Arctic militarization highlights growing competition for influence in the region. Realism explains why global superpowers are invested in Greenland’s future-because whoever controls Greenland holds a key position in the Arctic power balance.

From a constructivist perspective, the 2025 Greenland election reflects a shift in national identity and evolving perceptions of sovereignty rather than just economic or strategic calculations. Constructivism argues that political decisions are shaped by ideas, cultural identity, and historical narratives, rather than purely material interests like resources or military power.

Greenland’s pro-business but cautious independence government, led by Demokraatit, signals that while the desire for sovereignty is growing, many Greenlanders recognize the need for economic stability before full independence. This election outcome suggests that Greenlanders are redefining their national identity—not just as a Danish dependency, but as a nation-in-the-making.

Takeaways

Greenland’s 2025 elections have set the stage for a new era of political and economic strategy. The outcome will shape Arctic security, international alliances, and Greenland’s path toward independence. As global powers compete for influence in the Arctic, Greenland’s future remains a key geopolitical question.

Compiled by Commodore (Dr) Johnson Odakkal (with support from Ms Vivaksha Vats)

Stay Tuned for More!

Greenland’s 2025 elections have sent ripples through its political and geopolitical landscape, redefining the island’s future amid shifting alliances and climate-driven challenges. As new leadership takes the helm, questions loom over autonomy, economic strategy, and international influence. Beyond the ballot, the real test begins now—navigating governance in an evolving Arctic.

In the next episode of Global Canvas, we continue to dissect the aftershocks of global elections and power shifts. What global issues concern you most? Share your thoughts in the comments or reach out at www.johnsonodakkal.com or email ceo@johnsonodakkal.com to stay tuned.