Power, Identity, and the Ballot: North Macedonia 2024

Feb 136 min read

Another Episode of “Global Canvas” by JOI

North Macedonia’s 2024 elections were more than a political shift—they were a statement on identity, sovereignty, and the country’s place in Europe. With the first-ever female president elected and a nationalist government returning to power, the vote reflects both progress and polarization. The centre-right opposition party VMRO-DPMNE secured a parliamentary majority, signalling a decisive shift away from the ruling Social Democrats. But the key question remains: Will this transition steer the nation toward greater EU integration or deepen internal divisions and regional tensions?

Context and Background

North Macedonia, a small yet geopolitically significant Balkan nation, has long been at the crossroads of historical, cultural, and political tensions. Since gaining independence in 1991, its trajectory has been shaped by internal ethnic divides, international disputes, and aspirations for European Union membership. The country’s journey to stability included landmark agreements such as the 2001 Ohrid Framework Agreement, which addressed ethnic Albanian grievances, and the 2018 Prespa Agreement with Greece, which resolved the decades-long naming dispute and paved the way for NATO membership.

However, despite these milestones, political dissatisfaction has grown over the years. The country’s political landscape has been dominated by two major blocs: the Social Democratic Union of Macedonia (SDSM), a centre-left party, and the nationalist right-wing Internal Macedonian Revolutionary Organization–Democratic Party for Macedonian National Unity (VMRO-DPMNE). The SDSM has dominated the past decade by championing pro-European reforms. Yet, economic stagnation, allegations of corruption, and perceived concessions to neighbouring states have alienated many voters.

The parliamentary elections held on May 8, 2024, which were complemented by a presidential race saw a dramatic shift in power, with the VMRO-DPMNE securing a decisive victory, winning 58 out of 120 seats—just three short of an outright majority. This marked a significant return to power for the party, which had been in opposition since 2017. The VMRO-DPMNE capitalized on voter frustration with the SDSM’s governance, presenting itself as a defender of national sovereignty and traditional values. The incumbent SDSM LED center-left coalition suffered significant losses, capturing only 18 seats, marking their worst performance to date.

Adding to the historic nature of the elections was the victory of Gordana Siljanovska-Davkova, the VMRO-DPMNE presidential candidate, who became North Macedonia’s first female president garnering 65% of the vote. Though the position is largely ceremonial in nature, her win is a milestone for gender representation in a country where politics has traditionally been male-dominated. Siljanovska-Davkova’s campaign in line with her party emphasized nationalism, economic revitalization, and opposition to constitutional changes demanded by the EU to recognize a Bulgarian minority and her victory signalled a realignment of political priorities, with the electorate favouring nationalist rhetoric.

Following these elections, on June 23, 2024, North Macedonia's parliament approved a new government led by Prime Minister Hristijan Mickoski of the VMRO-DPMNE. The coalition government includes the Albanian alliance VLEN and For Our Macedonia (ZNAM), a splinter group from the SDSM.

Key Players and Stakeholders

The Internal Macedonian Revolutionary Organization – Democratic Party for Macedonian National Unity (VMRO-DPMNE) is a center-right, nationalist-conservative political party. It emphasizes the preservation of Macedonian identity, sovereignty, and cultural heritage, often adopting a more Eurosceptic stance compared to its rivals. In the 2024 elections, the party focused on issues like economic growth, combating corruption, and rejecting the use of the "North Macedonia" nomenclature, appealing to nationalist sentiments and voters frustrated with the Prespa Agreement.

The Social Democratic Union of Macedonia (SDSM) is a centre-left, pro-European party that champions progressive values, social justice, and Euro-Atlantic integration. It played a crucial role in North Macedonia’s NATO accession and supports EU membership as a pathway to economic and social development. In the elections, SDSM emphasized reforms, strengthening democratic institutions, and fostering regional stability through adherence to international agreements like the Prespa Accord, contrasting sharply with the nationalist rhetoric of VMRO-DPMNE.

Ethnic Albanian Parties: While much of the political discourse has focused on nationalism, the role of ethnic Albanian parties remains crucial. Representing nearly a quarter of the population, Albanian coalitions have traditionally advocated for EU integration and minority rights. Their inclusion in the governing coalition suggests that despite nationalist rhetoric, pragmatism may still guide North Macedonia’s future policy decisions.

International Stakeholders: The EU, NATO, and neighbouring countries like Greece and Bulgaria closely monitor North Macedonia’s political developments, given their implications for regional stability and EU accession processes.

Major Concerns and Consequences

Beyond questions of identity and sovereignty, North Macedonia’s 2024 elections will have immediate economic implications. North Macedonia, one of the poorest countries in Europe, relies heavily on EU trade and financial aid. A strained relationship with Brussels could slow critical investments and infrastructure projects. At the same time, rising nationalism could increase tensions with neighboring states, affecting regional stability and North Macedonia’s economic diplomacy. Domestically, the rise of nationalism risks deepening ethnic tensions.

Moreover, the party’s rhetoric, particularly its insistence on reverting to the name “Macedonia” instead of “North Macedonia,” has raised concerns. This tension was amplified during President Siljanovska-Davkova’s swearing-in ceremony on May 12 in Skopje, where she deliberately referred to the state as “Macedonia” rather than its official modified name. The move drew sharp criticism from the European Union, Greece, and Bulgaria, underscoring the region’s enduring sensitivities over identity and historical legacies.

Additionally, this election mirrors a broader trend of rising nationalism and Euroscepticism in the region, raising questions about the EU’s waning influence and the future of Balkan integration.

Theoretically Speaking

North Macedonia’s 2024 election is not just about a political party winning power—it is about how history, identity, and sovereignty shape voter behavior. Two key theories help us understand this shift: Constructivism and Realism, both of which offer distinct perspectives on why nationalism is resurging and how it affects the country’s future.

From a Constructivist perspective, this election is a reflection of how identity politics drives political outcomes. VMRO-DPMNE’s success lies in its ability to tap into the deeply ingrained cultural and historical grievances of many Macedonians. By opposing EU-mandated constitutional changes and emphasizing national pride, the party strengthened its appeal to voters who see political franchise as more than just governance—it is about safeguarding their identity. Constructivists argue that national identity is not fixed; it is shaped by historical memory, external pressures, and political rhetoric. The rise of nationalist sentiment in North Macedonia is not merely a reaction to economic struggles but a response to decades of perceived concessions, such as the 2018 Prespa Agreement, which required the country to adopt “North Macedonia” as its official name to secure NATO membership.

At the same time, Realism provides a more power-driven explanation for the election results. In the realist view, states act primarily in their national interest, prioritizing sovereignty and security over ideals like international cooperation. The rejection of EU-driven constitutional amendments aligns with the realist assumption that nations resist external interference when it conflicts with their internal stability. By electing a nationalist government, North Macedonia’s voters signaled that they prioritize self-determination over EU accession, even if that means delaying or jeopardizing their path to European integration. The realist framework helps explain why EU institutions and neighboring states, like Greece and Bulgaria, see the new government’s rhetoric as a challenge: it represents a shift from diplomatic compromise to assertive nationalism.

However, neither theory operates in isolation. The interplay of Constructivist identity narratives and Realist power politics is evident in how North Macedonia balances nationalism with aspirations for economic growth and regional stability. While the new government’s stance on sovereignty and EU relations reflects nationalist ideology, economic realities may push it to adopt a more pragmatic approach. As history has shown, states often adapt their positions when confronted with political and financial pressures—suggesting that even nationalist movements evolve when faced with the demands of governance.

Ultimately, this election leaves North Macedonia at a crossroads: Will nationalist sentiment lead to prolonged standoffs with the EU, or will economic realities push the new government toward pragmatism? The answer will shape not just the country’s path, but the wider trajectory of Balkan politics in the coming decade.

Takeaways

The 2024 elections in North Macedonia mark a pivotal shift, with the parliamentary victory of the nationalist VMRO-DPMNE. These outcomes highlight a growing tension between EU aspirations and rising nationalism, reflecting broader regional trends of Euroscepticism.

While the historic leadership change offers a chance for reform, the new government’s approach to ethnic relations, EU integration, and economic challenges will be closely watched. The election serves as a reminder of the complexities of balancing nationalistic aspirations with the need for stability and international cooperation.

Compiled by Commodore (Dr) Johnson Odakkal (with support from Ms Vivaksha Vats)

Stay Tuned for More!

As the Global Canvas series continues, we will delve into pivotal events shaping political landscapes and governance worldwide. North Macedonia’s 2024 elections highlight the intricate balance between national identity, sovereignty, and regional integration—an issue mirrored across global politics. To engage further in these discussions or explore how shifting power dynamics influence international affairs, visit www.johnsonodakkal.com or reach out via email at ceo@johnsonodakkal.com . Stay tuned as we analyze the forces redefining global governance and diplomacy.