Inaugural Episode of “Global Canvas” from JOI
On a hopeful evening in July 2024, Venezuelans like Gaby Arellano—a political refugee and former member of Venezuela's National Assembly—looked forward to a new dawn for their beleaguered nation. However, those hopes were quickly dashed when Nicolás Maduro secured a disputed third term as president the following day. Arellano, who has long been a vocal critic of Maduro's government and now seeks refuge in Colombia, was not alone in her disappointment. Across Venezuela, cries for change were stifled by the grim reality of what many believe to be a fraudulent election.
The 2024 presidential election has sparked significant controversy, underscoring Venezuela’s prolonged political crisis. This case study, the first in JOI’s Global Canvas series, delves into the implications of Nicolás Maduro's contested third-term victory and its relevance in the global political context. The election has raised widespread allegations of fraud, triggered protests, and prompted international backlash, reflecting the broader global challenges of democracy, governance, and human rights.
Context and Background
Venezuela’s political history has been marked by turbulence, especially since the rise of Hugo Chávez in 1999. Chávez’s Bolivarian Revolution centralised power, implemented socialist policies, and nationalised industries, all while using oil revenues to fund social programs. After Chávez’s death in 2013, Nicolás Maduro inherited an economy in decline, exacerbated by mismanagement, falling oil prices, and hyperinflation. His rule has been met with widespread opposition, leading to mass protests in 2014 and again following his disputed 2018 re-election.
The 2024 election further deepened this turmoil. Announced on July 29, 2024, the results declared Maduro the winner with 51% of the vote, while Edmundo González secured 44%. This result sharply contrasted with pre-election opinion polls predicting a significant lead for González, which ranged from 67-70%. Maduro’s victory, coupled with delayed voting tallies and widespread irregularities, has raised concerns about the legitimacy of the electoral process.
Key Players and Stakeholders
The 2024 Venezuelan election involved several key domestic and international stakeholders shaping the country’s political trajectory. At the centre has been Nicolás Maduro, who has maintained power through loyalist networks within the United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV), the military, and other state institutions. Despite growing economic mismanagement and allegations of human rights abuses, Maduro’s grip remains firm due to his control over key government branches. In opposition to Maduro has been Edmundo González, representing a fragmented but persistent opposition. The opposition’s challenges were compounded by the disqualification of popular figures like María Corina Machado, leaving González to lead the charge. Though González symbolizes hope for many Venezuelans disillusioned with Maduro’s rule, the opposition remains hampered by state suppression, a lack of institutional support, and internal divisions.
A key force in the country’s political equation continues to be the Venezuelan military, which has played a central role in maintaining Maduro’s leadership. The military’s loyalty, driven by political allegiance and economic interests, has allowed Maduro to suppress dissent, though growing dissatisfaction within the lower ranks reflects broader social and economic hardships.
Internationally, Brazil, Chile, and Colombia have called for transparency in Venezuela’s electoral process, advocating for the release of paper ballots to verify the results. In contrast, China, Russia, and Iran have supported Maduro, underscoring Venezuela’s strategic significance in the global geopolitical landscape. The United States continues to impose sanctions, pushing for free and fair elections, while the European Union offers diplomatic mediation.
Major Concerns and Consequences
The 2024 Venezuelan election has reignited concerns over electoral transparency and integrity. Pre-election polls suggesting González’s lead starkly contrasted with the final results, and the government’s delay in releasing detailed voting tallies further fueled allegations of fraud. This opacity undermines the credibility of the electoral process, casting doubt on the legitimacy of Maduro’s victory.
The fallout from the election has been swift. Protests erupted across Venezuela, met with harsh crackdowns by security forces. Operation Knock Knock, a controversial security operation, resulted in over 23 deaths and thousands of arrests, exacerbating tensions between the government and opposition. Reports of human rights violations have drawn international condemnation, further isolating Venezuela on the global stage.
Domestically, the election has deepened Venezuela’s political polarisation. Maduro’s continued hold on power, despite economic collapse and humanitarian crises, raises questions about the future of governance in the country. 7.8 million Venezuelans have fled, creating a regional refugee crisis and straining neighboring countries like Colombia and Brazil.
Globally, the election is part of a broader pattern of democratic erosion, akin to disputed elections in Belarus and Myanmar. Venezuela’s strategic importance in Latin America, coupled with the involvement of external actors like China, Russia, and the U.S., makes this crisis particularly significant for global politics and regional stability.
Political Perspectives and Understanding
Understanding Venezuela’s 2024 election through different political theories provides valuable insights into the motivations behind Maduro’s government and the international response. Realism argues that Venezuela’s leadership prioritizes survival and power, often at the expense of democratic norms. Maduro’s actions, bolstered by military support and strategic alliances with Russia and China, reflect this realist tendency to preserve authority in a fragile state.
Liberalism meanwhile emphasises the need for international cooperation, democratic values, and institutional support. Liberal theorists critique Venezuela’s opaque electoral process and stress the importance of international mediation, as seen in the calls by Brazil and Colombia for transparency. Constructivism offers a deeper understanding of the ideological constructs within Venezuela. Maduro’s regime, rooted in Chávez’s Bolivarian ideology, continues to shape its policies around nationalism, socialism, and resistance to foreign intervention, particularly from the U.S.
The international response remains divided, with Western democracies pushing for electoral reforms and authoritarian regimes like China and Russia supporting Maduro’s claim to power. Venezuela’s election serves as a microcosm of the broader ideological struggle between authoritarianism and democracy in the global arena.
Takeaways
Venezuela’s 2024 election highlights the fragility of democracy in politically unstable environments. Allegations of fraud, coupled with internal unrest and international scrutiny, emphasise the broader geopolitical divide between authoritarianism and democratic governance. The election serves as a stark reminder of how quickly democratic institutions can erode under authoritarian regimes.
The global implications of this crisis extend far beyond Venezuela’s borders. If left unresolved, the country’s political instability could affect regional stability, influence international diplomacy, and shape future discussions on democratic governance and human rights. Venezuela’s ongoing struggle is a test case for how the world responds to electoral fraud, authoritarianism, and human rights abuses, making it a critical moment in the evolving global political landscape.
Compiled by Commodore (Dr) Johnson Odakkal (with support from Ms Kashmira Juwatkar and Ms Supriya Mishra)
Stay Tuned for More!
Stay tuned for more insightful and diverse case studies from around the world as part of our Global Canvas series. Each blog will delve into unique geopolitical cases, offering fresh perspectives and critical analyses from our talented contributors. If you want to contribute to our Global Canvas series, feel free to drop an email at ceo@johnsonodakkal.com or reach out to us at www.johnsonodakkal.com and www.joi4u.com . For more insights and information on this series, email us at ops@johnsonodakkal.com. Stay connected, and join us as we continue to explore the ever-evolving landscape of global politics!
References and Sources
Reuters. (2024, August 6). Venezuela launches investigation against opposition leaders amid protest crackdown
The Week. (2024, August 7). Venezuelan opposition candidate Gonzalez won't appear before court and questions election audit.
Rogero, T. (2024, August 6). Evidence shows Venezuela’s election was stolen – but will Maduro budge?. The Guardian
Buschschlüter, V. (2024, July 29). Venezuela's Maduro declared winner in disputed vote. BBC
Noriega, C. (2024, August 29). Venezuela's diaspora flexes its might. Al Jazeera.
REGINA GARCIA CANO. JOSHUA GOODMAN. ANGELIKI KASTANIS. (2024, August 3). A review of Venezuela opposition-provided vote tallies casts doubt on the government's election results. AP News.
JOSHUA GOODMAN. JORGE RUEDA. (2024, August 29). Maduro opponents take to streets to revive protests disputing Venezuelan election results. AP News.
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